Solar Cycle 25 update

Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:47 pm

Quoting distances particulary on 20m really is pointless (imo) Brazil would most likely fit in those distances yet even on 10m Brazil is considered the Italy of DX. What really is DX on 20m ? not much outside the Pacific Ocean islands from the South of the UK even with 100w and a wire from my point of view and I guess you prove my point as to 20m which really does not need the high SFU that the higher HF 15/12/10 & 6m require and will also benfit from Sporadic E which may never reach the higher HF. My interest in the progression of SC25 is how it will effect 10m and the cross over point from working DX and working the World with a rubber duck antenna 20ft underground . If taking Clublog as a referance the top British isles station on 10m phone in 2016 ( the year of the big drop in propagation ) worked 106 entities ,2017 =93 ,2018 =92 ,2019 =98 ,2020 =116 with this year's leader already at 108 .Whilst for 2022 which the equivalant SC24 year would have been 2011 well the top score then was 209 entities worked. Even at the Solar minimum years even on 10m SSB it was possible to work around the 100 mark Eat ,Sleep , DX. (for carity there are 77 non DX entities less than 2000miles from the UK )

Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Fri Aug 06, 2021 9:07 am

It seems my successes are being beaten down here so I will let a superior dx'er with 400W and a beam explain all from now onwards.

There is just one other thing though before I go.. if you think 7,300 miles is Brazil from the UK you might want to either brush up on your map reading skills or get a map with greater accuracy.

Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Fri Aug 06, 2021 1:12 pm

Well you did quote other milages in your post , but ok GEOFF ,although you weren't shy of running abit of power on 11m as 26SO239 so my legal 400w on 10m is abit of the pot calling the kettle black.

Guest

Revised prediction for solarcycle 25
A revised prediction from the NASA High Altitude Observatory based at the University Of Colorado.
NASA Heliophysicists have released a revised prediction for Solar Cycle 25.
The report generated by Ricky Egeland a Solar Physicist working in the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group now calls for the peak of Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of 195 ± 17 based upon the new scale for calculating Smoothed Sun Spot Number. For reference Solar Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN 233 (new scale) while Solarcycle 23 peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale). If this predictions holds up Ham Radio will see Excellent Worldwide F Layer Conditions on 10 Meters for several years around Solar Max. 6 Meters conditions should be good in the Equinox Periods before and after Solar Max with consistent openings on Medium Haul Polar Routes. 6 Meter routes traversing the equator should experience consistent openings ± 9 months from Solar Max.

Ricky Egeland is a particpating member in the group headed up by Scott McIntosh and Bob Leamon that published a paper 9 months ago outlining the existance magnetic bands within the Sun that govern the Sunspot and Hale Cycles. At the time of its publishing the paper went on to predict the peak of Solar Cycle 25 could be as high Solarcycle 21. Today's released is a revised prediction based upon data observed since the original paper was published. To be sure we are still in early days.
The Solar Rotation Cycle as marked by Sunspot Activity was established on April 19, 2021 so we are only 90 Days into actually observing Cycle 25 Activity. It is now agreed the dramactic run-up in Sunspot Activity we experienced late Last Fall while tied to Cycle 25 was an outlier. When asked directly about whether they can declare if the Terminator Event they wrote about in the Fall 2020 Paper has occurred Scott McIntosh stated "We can't be sure just yet but we are very very close". It also should be noted that while it has been over a year since the sun produced a Cycle 24 Region with a Sunspot worthy of a NASA Classification the Sun has been steadily producing Spotless SC 24 Active Regions the last of which formed right on the Solar Equator at N00-W54 on July 24,2021 as recorded by Jan Alvestad's Solar Terrestial Activity Report Website. These Active Regions being part of a Solarcycle in its final stages of existence produce no spots and only last for a few hours before they dissipate away. The previous SC24 Active Region formed on June 28, 2021. Once the SC24 active regions cease forming Solar Cycle 25 will take off in earnest.

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The Perseid meteor shower has begun
Earth is entering a stream of debris from giant comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower.
Although it doesn't peak until mid-next week, the shower is already active. Last night alone, NASA cameras detected more than a dozen fireballs over the USA.
More information and observing tips @ Spaceweather.com.

Guest

Solar Cycle 25 numbers for Sept. 2021
Sept 2021 is winding down and here is a preview of the Solar Numbers we can expect this Friday. The Solar Flux for Sept looks to be 86.5 Measured and 88 adjusted for 1 AU. This is the secondest highest readings of the new Solar Cycle topped only by the dramatic run-up last November.
Take a good long last look at those numbers as the current ramp-up in Solar Activity will easily blast through them in October. In the closing 36 hours of the month the 10.7 cm had jumped up 12 points to 101 and was rising fast as this report was being typed up.

The Monthly Mean Sunspot Number Number for September will be in the Low to Mid 50s (New Scale) say 54 (New Scale) when converted to the Old Scale so we can compare it to traditional counts it equates to (38 Old Scale). The Smoothed Sunspot Number (SSN) for Sept is 46 (New Scale) 32 (Old Scale). September's Sunspot Numbers are easily the highest of the new Solar Cycle thus far.

And the good news doesn't stop there. On Sept 14th Scott MacIntosh from the National Center for Atmospheric Research announced that he expects the termination event concluding Cycle 24 is imminent and a rapid run-up in Solar Activity to commence in Mid-November. Solar Minimum was recorded in November 2019, the last SWPC numbered SC24 sunspot was observed in July 2020, the last un-numbered SC24 Active Region was observed on August 14, 2021. It appears that Cycle 24 is over.

Guest

A new meteor shower
A meteor storm could erupt over Antarctica this week when Earth skirts a stream of debris from Comet 15P/Finlay, source of the newly discovered Arid meteor shower.
Astronomers have wondered for years why this nearby comet does not produce periodic displays of meteors. The long wait appears to be over.
Full story @ Spaceweather.com.

Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:32 am

Hi all, just reading earlier posts, getting in to brazil on 50 watts with a piece of wire is still a big deal to me .Although it can be easy for some, breaking through a pile up can be near imposable. I was on 20 meters calling on a station for 30 minutes trying to get a contact, when a local HAM made his first call and got an answerer back immediately, that is just great I thought and was about to give up. The local HAM then said to the dx station, we have a low power station trying to make contact. And so i had my first contact with Bagdad ,it was a bit scratchy 5/2 but confirmed on QRZ,COM.my point is although for some its easy for others its not, and need a bit of luck.400 watts and a beam do you get bored shooting fish in a barrel or do you still get the same buzz as me, but at the same time would love 400 wats and a beam
take care
regards mark

Guest

Earth-directed solar flare and halo cme
This morning, an explosion on the sun hurled a CME almost directly toward Earth. It's called a 'halo CME' because the storm cloud appears to make a halo around the solar disk as it moves in our direction.
Minor to moderately-strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives during the late hours of Oct. 11th or Oct 12th.
Get the full story and forecast updates @ Spaceweather.com.

Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Mon Oct 11, 2021 4:54 pm

Markone wrote:: Hi all, just reading earlier posts, getting in to brazil on 50 watts with a piece of wire is still a big deal to me .Although it can be easy for some, breaking through a pile up can be near imposable. I was on 20 meters calling on a station for 30 minutes trying to get a contact, when a local HAM made his first call and got an answerer back immediately, that is just great I thought and was about to give up. The local HAM then said to the dx station, we have a low power station trying to make contact. And so i had my first contact with Bagdad ,it was a bit scratchy 5/2 but confirmed on QRZ,COM.my point is although for some its easy for others its not, and need a bit of luck.400 watts and a beam do you get bored shooting fish in a barrel or do you still get the same buzz as me, but at the same time would love 400 wats and a beam
take care
regards mark

Congratulations on the contact Mark.
My first real HF transceiver when I got my A class call was an Yaesu FT707S (10w) and I sort of got used to working with low power, even now I have full size beams/Quads on HF even on 40m and 2KW from the OM Power amp, I spend 99% of my time working on hf with less than 100w, more often its a challenge for me with just 5watts.
Do the best with what you have mate... .
Regards Ady

Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:28 pm

Gents,
irregardless of whether your a fan of Sunspot cycle predictions or not, bearing in mind, mankind only began recording sunspots about 400 years ago, predictions are just that, predictions, wrong or right we all have an opinion, however, this is a big however...........
HF propagation is not something we have really understood, what i mean by this is from a radio enthusiasts point of view the arrival of WSPR and subsequently FT4/FT8/JT65 etc has shown many that the bands are open more often than most assumed possible even with even basic radio low power equipment/antenna systems compared to high cost military systems.

As a radio amateur i have run WSPR on 28Mhz and 10Mhz and seen some amazing propagation when most assumed the band would be closed ! and this is only in my amateur radio pastime, my point of view is from an Ex-Military communications SIGINT/ELINT expert who also spent a long time working for GCHQ, the HF bands are incredibly complex but remarkably constant.
If somebodies predictions are correct, fine more dx for us, if they are off in their calculations your still going to make contacts !!
Just my point of view.......personally i will just sit back and see what happens !
Regards to all Ady

Guest

A volcanic comet blows its top
Comet 29P/Schwassmann-Wachmann is no ordinary comet. It has volcanoes, and at least four of them just erupted.
A cloud of 'cryomagma' is expanding into space, wider than Jupiter and an easy target for backyard telescopes.
Full story @ Spaceweather.com.

Guest

Significant X-class solar flare
There was a global eruption on the sun today. It started with a powerful X1-class solar flare from sunspot AR2887.
The blast created a massive tsunami of plasma in the sun's atmosphere, which rippled across the entire solar disk. A CME is probably heading for Earth, raising the possibility of a geomagnetic storm on Halloween. More information and updates @ Spaceweather.com.

Solar Flare Alerts: Sign up for Space Weather Alerts and get instant text notifications when solar flares are underway.

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