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Subject: Solar Cycle 25 update Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:54 am
Solar Cycle update Solar Maximum might arrive a little sooner than expected. Recent sunspot counts suggest that new Solar Cycle 25 is over-performing compared to official forecasts, and could peak in 2024 instead of 2025. Get the full story @ Spaceweather.com.
Bean Major contributor
Posts : 214 Times Thanked : 6 Join date : 2019-06-29
Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:53 am
What a load of tripe ( imo) that only holds true if the maximum is as the NASA/NOAA prediction , whilst the maximum may well be in 2024 it could be of a higher amplitude than SC24 therefore a steeper rise and another peak 1>2 years later. Currently the SSN is tracking mid way between SC24 (max 116) and sc10 (max 179) so maybe a max amplitude 150+ but who knows ? The Sun does what it wants not what humans predict.
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:13 pm
My opinion is " i will wait and see"
Alan Pilot Major contributor
Call Sign : 163-CT-220...MW7TTA Posts : 2187 Times Thanked : 52 Join date : 2019-11-19 QTH or Location : Anglesey North Wales Equipment Used : Yaesu FT-991A,,Yaesu FTDX-10,,Icom ic-7300,,Anytone AT-D878UV PLUS",,LINCOLN II+. Age : 149
Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:21 am
I don't believe everything i read. Definitely don't try to convince others by spreading it around. I think as we are all radio enthusiasts we do our own homework os ASK.
Last edited by Alan Pilot on Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:50 am; edited 1 time in total
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ILikeRadioSoDoYou New Member
Posts : 34 Times Thanked : 3 Join date : 2021-01-29 QTH or Location : . Equipment Used : .
Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:43 am
If it is all just pure chance then there is no authority on the matter so any given view is valid as.... any other given view. There is little point in any theories or interest in it if it it entirely out of our hands... other than a bit of a hobby related wasted time.
Not to mention the fact that some of your best contacts don't even follow traditional sun spot counts and solar parameters
Turn the radio on try some dx, end of story.
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Mon Apr 19, 2021 12:49 am
To me over the years is to make the best contacts is to be on at the right time. 73, Mark.
Victor CT Directors
Call Sign : 26-CT-3228 / M7VIC Posts : 4666 Times Thanked : 301 Join date : 2019-11-10 QTH or Location : Bedford Equipment Used : Various
Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:25 am
I'm just glad to be alive and kicking whilst it's all happening Mark!
I've enjoyed the cycles on CB and this time round I get to enjoy it with my Ham ticket.
(That's if I manage to repair my poxy old FT! )
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53 Prefect Senior contributor
Call Sign : VA3XUK & G6ZGU Posts : 127 Times Thanked : 6 Join date : 2021-02-08 QTH or Location : Coldwater, Ontario Equipment Used : ICOM at the moment Age : 65
I guess it is what it is.. I have worked during peaks, and lows. It can be more exciting working that rare station during a low. More so than when stations are pouring in from all over the place. It is a hobby with many facets, so when all is quite, you can, perhaps, build a cool antenna or something that will help out in the future. Anyway, lets hope it improves somewhat in the future. "Que sera, sera".
Alan - Mirror Man Major contributor
Call Sign : 108CT233 Posts : 201 Times Thanked : 14 Join date : 2019-12-01 QTH or Location : Central Scotland Equipment Used : CRT SS9900 Beofeng UV5R Yaesu FTDX1200 CRT Micron CRT FP00 Sattelite 2000 antenna ZS6BKW X30 co-linear
I have been following this person on YouTube for the Solar Weather reports, they aren't coming out with any out-there theories, just scientific information presented in a pleasant and professional manner, I imagine some of you will follow Tamitha already but for those who dont and are interested I will leave a link:
An Earth-Directed Stealthy Storm Launches as Activity Bumps Up | Solar Storm Forecast 04.14.2021
https://youtu.be/Tti4AZUa458
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Chefsdead Contributor
Call Sign : 26-CT-3891 Posts : 66 Times Thanked : 0 Join date : 2020-11-30 QTH or Location : Doncaster Equipment Used : CRT SS 6900N .. Yaesu ft450d Age : 58
M-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot AR2816 erupted during the late hours of April 19th (2342 UT), producing a strong M1-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
This is one of the strongest flares of young Solar Cycle 25. A pulse of X-rays and ultraviolet radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: blackout map. Mariners and ham radio operators in the area might have noticed unusual propagation conditions at frequencies below 10 MHz. There is a chance that the explosion also hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. If so, it would probably arrive on April 22-23. The jury's still out, though. We need to wait for more data from SOHO coronagraphs to confirm the CME. Stay tuned
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Wed Apr 21, 2021 8:48 am
Solar Flare and Radio Blackout In a sign of increasing solar activity, the sun just produced an M-class solar flare--one of the strongest flares of new Solar Cycle 25. A pulse of X-rays and UV radiation caused a shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean, and the explosion also hurled a CME into space. Get the full story @ Spaceweather.com.
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:57 am
W3LPL's forecast for upcoming Solar Cycle 25 - Apr 2021.
Frank Donovan, W3LPL is one of the top contesters in the USA and is a key forecaster of upcoming conditions on the HF amateur radio bands. In a recent forecast (April 2021), he made a forecast about how good upcoming Solar Cycle 25 would be based on the Solar Flux numbers at the end of December 2021. I have put together a graphic which shows this above. The starting point for April 2021 is a solar flux index of 77 which is roughly the average for the month. W3LPL wrote... “If the SFI persists below 90 through December 2021, then propagation should improve gradually until a solar maximum weaker than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024. If the SFI persists above 110 through December 2021, then propagation should improve rapidly until a solar maximum similar to Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024. “If the SFI persists above 125 through December 2021, then propagation is likely to improve more rapidly until a solar maximum stronger than Cycle 24’s arrives in 2024.” (SFI = Solar Flux Index) As with everything on the sun, there is always an amount of uncertainty in solar forecasts but it will be interesting to revisit this at the end of the year and see where we're at.
Bean Major contributor
Posts : 214 Times Thanked : 6 Join date : 2019-06-29
Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:57 am
Solarcycle 24 was considered a weak cycle at 116 , a cycle that was of average amplitude SC10 at 186 is much more likely to be where SC25 will be come the end of the year based on my own SSN tracker. SC25 started from a much lower point than SC10 yet equalled it for the SSN of June in the first year of the cycles and has again at least matched it for October in the first year ( maybe 0.1 ahead depending on the Sunspot count for today and the April monthly mean that will produce) . The monthly mean Sunspot numbers go in ever increasing peaks and troughs at the start of the cycle , each peak greater than the last whilst each trough isnt as low as proceeding one. November was SC25 first peak of 34.5 and it bottomed out in February at 8.3 as regards monthly mean values , we should get the next peak possibly in May or June where it would need to exceed 34.5 then once again SC25 will continue to track SC10 and leave SC24 behind. We may not have to wait till the end of the year for a clearer picture if the next mean peak does indeed happen in May of June. ( The Sun does what it wants not what humans , and me, predict )
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ILikeRadioSoDoYou New Member
Posts : 34 Times Thanked : 3 Join date : 2021-01-29 QTH or Location : . Equipment Used : .
Given there is an approximate 11 year cycle it does seem that there are clear patterns, 11 years being the longest and most obvious, and also some random events so it is fun to predict it. I do radio even when there is not a lot happening sun wise and you can still make very good and long dx contacts just with bits of wire.
At least we know we are going up not down, that works in our favour whatever band you like.
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Sat May 08, 2021 9:14 am
The Sun just hit Earth with a radio burst New sunspot AR2822 appeared today and promptly exploded, producing one of the strongest flares of young Solar Cycle 25. The M3.9-class explosion hurled a bright CME into space and hit Earth with a shortwave radio burst. Listen to the static and find out what comes next @ Spaceweather.com.
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Mon May 24, 2021 10:24 am
Solar flare frenzy and CME On Saturday, the sun produced a sequence of solar flares unlike anything we've seen in years. Earth-orbiting satellites detected a dozen explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2824. One of them emitted a radio burst so strong, it drowned out static from lightning storms on Earth and was recorded at midnight by listening stations in the Arctic. NOAA forecast models suggest that a CME might hit Earth's magnetic field on May 26th. Full story @ Spaceweather.com.
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Sat May 29, 2021 8:36 am
For the first time during the new Solar Cycle 25, a radiation storm is currently in progress. The minor (S1) radiation storm threshold threshold was just reached. From NOAA/SWPC. Solar radiation storms occur when a large-scale magnetic eruption, often causing a coronal mass ejection and associated solar flare, accelerates charged particles in the solar atmosphere to very high velocities. The most important particles are protons which can get accelerated to large fractions of the speed of light. At these velocities, the protons can traverse the 150 million km from sun to Earth in just 10’s of minutes or less. When they reach Earth, the fast moving protons penetrate the magnetosphere that shields Earth from lower energy charged particles. Once inside the magnetosphere, the particles are guided down the magnetic field lines and penetrate into the atmosphere near the north and south poles. Solar Radiation Storms cause several impacts near Earth. When energetic protons collide with satellites or humans in space, they can penetrate deep into the object that they collide with and cause damage to electronic circuits or biological DNA. During the more extreme Solar Radiation Storms, passengers and crew in high flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to radiation risk. Also, when the energetic protons collide with the atmosphere, they ionize the atoms and molecules thus creating free electrons. These electrons create a layer near the bottom of the ionosphere that can absorb High Frequency (HF) radio waves making radio communication difficult or impossible.
Bean Major contributor
Posts : 214 Times Thanked : 6 Join date : 2019-06-29
Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Sat May 29, 2021 8:51 am
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap?fbclid=IwAR0IUB0eRmywQqtXZQQsBLnnphNMQgg7jPZJsYZXt4CIN2gRm7Fj1U1WmWs Play vid. to show effects .
Bean Major contributor
Posts : 214 Times Thanked : 6 Join date : 2019-06-29
Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Fri Jun 25, 2021 7:45 am
Ok , maybe not May or June for the next peak in monthly mean Sunspot numbers (re. my post 30th April ) How about July .
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Sun Jul 04, 2021 11:16 am
First X-flare in 4 years A new sunspot emerged during the early hours of July 3rd and promptly exploded, producing the first X-class solar flare since Sept. 2017. X-flares are the most powerful kind, and this one caused a strong shortwave radio blackout over the Atlantic Ocean. Updates to this developing story will be posted throughout the weekend @ Spaceweather.com.
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Fri Jul 16, 2021 8:21 am
Farside explosion touches Earth Something just exploded on the farside of the sun. The blast was so potent, it peppered Earth with energetic particles even though the body of the sun was blocking the blast site. This is the latest sign of increasing activity by young Solar Cycle 25. Full story @ Spaceweather.com.
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Wed Aug 04, 2021 10:51 pm
Solar maximum might come early New sunspot data show that Solar Cycle 25 is heating up faster than expected. In fact, Solar Max could arrive in 2024 instead of 2025 as originally forecast. See the data and learn more @ Spaceweather.com.
Bean Major contributor
Posts : 214 Times Thanked : 6 Join date : 2019-06-29
Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:27 am
Just another rehash of Lisa Upton's ass covering ( she who predicted SC25 would only be 90% of SC24 ) Notice that whilst they again say the maximum could be earlier theres no mention of the increase in amplitude on the "best fit" new projection . Also spaceweatherlive.con archives show six Sunspot regions for 30th November 2020.
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ILikeRadioSoDoYou New Member
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Subject: Re: Solar Cycle 25 update Thu Aug 05, 2021 1:19 pm
Not to curb discussion on predictions for this cycle, many sides of interest to the hobby (and if I am honest I am no sun weather expert). I made a contact 7,300 miles (amongst multiple 6,000 and 4,500 miles contacts) yesterday on 20m with 1 piece of wire @ 100W. And the SFI is pitifully low.
Don't rest on the numbers too much. I am not suggesting it is easy, as a bit of effort is required, but it can be done.
Today at 12:47 am by TheReverend
Subject: Solar Cycle 25 update 
)
for the next peak in monthly mean Sunspot numbers (re. my post 30th April ) How about July 